MELAKA: Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional are on track to secure more than two-thirds of the seats in the Melaka election, independent think tank Ilham Centre said.
In a report published today, the centre projected BN-PN to lead in 24 of the 28 seats up for grabs, comfortably exceeding the 19 seats needed for a two-thirds majority.
Pakatan Harapan, meanwhile, was projected to retain a comfortable position in two of its traditional strongholds, Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir. However, the centre classified the other two seats previously held by PH, Ayer Keroh and Kesidang, as closely contested.
“Ilham Centre concluded that the BN-PN blue wave was dominating the contest in the Melaka election, with a significant advantage over PH.
“The consolidation of Malay votes, high morale among campaign machinery and public acceptance of the state government’s administration were identified as the three main factors strengthening the coalition’s position,” it said in the report.
BN is fielding candidates in 23 seats, while the remaining seats are being contested by Pas and its allies in PN, including Parti Wawasan Negara and Gerakan.
One of the factors cited by the centre in favour of BN-PN was the consolidation of Malay support through their cooperation, with field findings showing effective vote transfers between supporters of the two coalitions.
“Our findings showed that 91 per cent of PN voters had shifted their support to BN, while 78 per cent of BN voters had shifted their support to PN.
“This has made 23 seats where Malay voters account for at least 50 per cent of the electorate increasingly difficult for PH to penetrate.
“The strength of the coalition is also supported by the dominance of Umno and Pas election machinery, which have well-organised grassroots networks extending down to the polling district level.
“The mobilisation of these two experienced political organisations gives BN-PN a significant advantage over parties that lack comparable organisational structures and local voter networks.”
The centre said the situation was further reinforced by the high approval ratings for caretaker Chief Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ab Rauf Yusoh, who is also Melaka BN chairman, at 86 per cent, and the state government, at 85 per cent.
“Two key state government programmes, namely Wakil Rakyat Untuk Rakyat (WRUR) and the Jelajah Ketua Menteri Sayang Rakyat initiative, have emerged as important platforms for strengthening voters’ acceptance of the BN administration.
“Both initiatives have highlighted a leadership approach that is close to the people and reinforced the perception that the state government is consistently present in their daily lives,” it said.
On the other hand, the centre said PH had failed to build a sufficiently compelling political case to persuade voters to opt for change.
It said PH’s failure to establish a strong overarching narrative had also limited its ability to attract voters who had previously had no strong allegiance to the coalition.
“Among undecided voters, PH has also failed to present a political proposition that is sufficiently distinct from that of the incumbent state government.
“This has led some voters to feel more comfortable maintaining their previous choices or favouring the coalition perceived to have a greater chance of winning,” it said.