The NFL hit the halfway mark after Week 9, so it seems like a good time to ask how many teams can actually win the Super Bowl.
The answer (spoiler alert) isn’t 32. I’m not sure it’s even 10.
NFL WEEK 9 SUNDAY TAKEAWAYS: BENGALS, 49ERS AND PACKERS LOOK SUPER, RAMS FINALLY OVER .500
Let’s start with the legitimate contenders and work our way down to the teams that don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell.
If I’m picking a team to win the Super Bowl today, give me Buffalo. The Bills lead the NFL at 32 points per game, and four of their final nine games are against the Jets and Dolphins, who have three wins between them. That’s a pretty good spot for a team that already holds the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Josh Allen has played in two AFC Championship Games, both at Arrowhead. If Buffalo keeps the top seed, the Bills get a first-round bye and need two home wins to reach the Super Bowl. I’ll take my chances with Allen in Buffalo twice.
I called San Francisco the best team in the NFL after Week 4, and the 49ers are still my pick to come out of the NFC. Ricky Pearsall went down before the season started, Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel have both missed time, and Christian Kirk is back on injured reserve. Through all of that, Brock Purdy has completed 69% of his passes and thrown 17 touchdowns against five interceptions.
Now the 49ers have added Keenan Allen. If Evans and Samuel get healthy, good luck getting this offense off the field in January.
The only part of the Jets game that made me reconsider Kansas City’s Super Bowl chances was when Patrick Mahomes hurt his arm. He came back on the next possession, and the Chiefs went on to win by 23. Kansas City has allowed 143 points in eight games, so Mahomes has a defense that can buy him time when the offense starts slowly. If he’s healthy in January and gets the ball with a chance to end your season, how good do you feel about your chances?
Joe Burrow is my MVP at the halfway point. He brought the Bengals back from 13 down in back-to-back games, including an overtime win against Tennessee. I’d prefer they quit making him do that. Spotting the Titans 13 is one thing. Try doing it in Buffalo in January.
The defense held Atlanta to 17 points in Spain. If that group can play like that more often, Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can win the whole thing.
Yeah, I called the Packers bad after they barely beat Tampa Bay in Week 4 (whoops). Green Bay has gone 5-1 since the loss to Atlanta, and the one loss in that stretch was a game I thought they should have won in Detroit. Then they put up 45 against New England and picked off Drake Maye three times. If both sides of the ball are going to play like that, the Packers can win the NFC. The games against Minnesota and the Rams should tell us whether I’m about to change my mind again.
The Rams are the team in this group I’d be least surprised to see miss the playoffs. Three weeks ago, they were 2-4 and Arizona was spending most of the afternoon in Matthew Stafford’s lap. Now they’ve won three straight and Myles Garrett is back.
Sean McVay just needs to scrape out enough wins to get in while Puka Nacua and Davante Adams heal. The offensive line still worries me, but if both receivers are healthy in January and the Rams can keep Stafford upright, I’d hate to be the division winner that draws them in the first round.
Ben Johnson won games with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent, so I’m sold on the coaching. Caleb Williams is the reason I can see Chicago winning it all and the reason I’m keeping the Bears here. He threw two touchdowns on his first 16 attempts against Tampa Bay and four interceptions on his next 16. Williams has tantalizing physical gifts and is arguably the most talented player in the NFL right now. But mistakes are amplified in the playoffs and Williams still makes a few too many for me to have Chicago in the same tier as the teams above.
Trevor Lawrence is playing some of the best football of his career, and Jacksonville has outscored its opponents by 108 points. I get why people are higher on the Jaguars than I am. I also watched them commit 13 penalties while nearly giving away a win in Cincinnati, then let C.J. Stroud throw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in London. I can see the Jaguars winning the division and a home playoff game. But the AFC is loaded at the top and to me, the Jags are a notch below the Bills, Bengals and Chiefs.
I had Seattle in the Super Bowl conversation when it played San Francisco in Week 5, and the defense that held Kansas City to three points is a good reason to keep the Seahawks there. A week after that Chiefs game, Seattle gave up 34 to Chicago. Shutting down Gardner Minshew and the Cardinals didn’t settle much for me. I’m more interested in what the defending champs look like when they get another crack at the 49ers on Nov. 29.
Detroit has won four straight, and I trust Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs to score against just about anyone. The defense is why I have the Lions in this tier. Holding Jordan Love and the Packers to 17 points carries the most weight with me, and even in that game, Green Bay missed a 35-yard field goal that would’ve given it the lead late.
The other three wins came against Jacoby Brissett, Kyler Murray and Malik Willis. I’ll feel better about Detroit’s chances in January if that defense can hold up against Caleb Williams and the Bears on Thanksgiving.
Seven wins and a plus-12 point differential feels about right for the Broncos I’ve watched. They nearly lost to the winless Chargers and got the better end of some questionable calls against Carolina, a game they still needed a Nik Bonitto strip-sack to finish. And it wasn’t the first time this season that Denver needed some help from the officials to win a game. If you’ve read me for any length of time, you know I don’t believe in Sean Payton or Bo Nix. But mostly Sean Payton, the NFL’s most overrated head coach.
I think Kevin O’Connell is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and he deserves plenty of credit for getting the Vikings to 6-2. I also questioned what to make of their 5-0 start when their previous three opponents had a combined 2-13 record. Then Minnesota scored six points against Buffalo on Monday Night Football. O’Connell can scheme his way to a lot of wins, but I’m skeptical he can get enough from the quarterback position to survive the tough NFC, even after trading for quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Remember when I wondered if Drake Maye was a one-hit wonder? He promptly went into Buffalo and won, then accounted for five touchdowns against the Raiders. The Patriots have already beaten my No. 1 team on the road, so I know what their best looks like. I also know what it looked like when Maye threw three picks against Green Bay. I’d need to see a longer stretch of the Buffalo version before I buy a return trip to the Super Bowl.
DRAKE MAYE TELLS REPORTERS THEY DON’T KNOW ‘WHAT THEY’RE TALKING ABOUT’ DURING GERMANY PRESS CONFERENCE
I thought Aaron Rodgers was cooked, and he responded by throwing nine touchdowns in three games. The Steelers have already beaten Cincinnati, and I can see Rodgers winning a home playoff game at 43. Now picture Pittsburgh having to win a shootout against Joe Burrow one week and going on the road to face Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes the next. I just don’t see a February run out of this team.
John Harbaugh has the Giants in first place despite losing Jaxson Dart and having to shuffle quarterbacks. That’s a good coaching job. The reward for winning the NFC East is a likely home playoff game against a wild-card team from the NFC North or West that’s considerably better than the Giants.
Five wins are more than I expected after watching Deshaun Watson in Week 1. And Week 2. And Week 3. You get it. The Browns are winning despite subpar quarterback play, not because their signal callers have done a good job. Eventually, that poor play is going to lead to a lot more losses.
I was giving Jesse Minter some early Coach of the Year credit after he took Tyler Huntley into Atlanta and won. That was four losses ago. And with Lamar Jackson expected to be out for 6-to-9 weeks, this season is basically over.
I thought the Raiders were better than people expected, and they were competitive against both Kansas City and Buffalo. They’ve also gone 1-5 since starting 3-0, and the 49ers just beat them by three touchdowns. The Raiders themselves seemingly gave up on the season by trading Kirk Cousins and handing the offense to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. I’m looking forward to seeing what the kid can do, but the future is not now.
Every year, we’re’re told “this is the year” for the Dallas Cowboys and every year … it isn’t. This season is no exception. The Cowboys just racked up 153 penalty yards and needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Colts. The NFC East is still within reach, which says more about the NFC East than it does about Dallas. Even if they sneak into the playoffs, they aren’t going to make a Super Bowl run.
Houston has won three of its last four games after starting 0-4. C.J. Stroud threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in an impressive win over Jacksonville in London. A week later, the Texans lost at home to the Giants in overtime. The Texans dug themselves a pretty big hole, and while I think they’re one of the better teams in this tier, they’re just too inconsistent to be considered a real contender.
It’s actually fascinating to see the Panthers here, right below the Texans. Following their rookie seasons, everyone thought C.J. Stroud was a can’t-miss star and Bryce Young was a bust. The truth is that both are competent, but not spectacular, NFL starters. I’m more impressed by Young, since he easily could have let his career go down the tubes after a terrible start, but he showed some heart and grit to battle back. Unfortunately, there’s just not enough talent around him in Carolina right now.
Tyler Shough and Chris Olave have made the Saints more fun to watch than I expected. Shough threw for 410 yards and came a two-point conversion from beating Detroit, then beat Baltimore the next week. There’s something to build around here, and the NFC South gives them a chance to make things interesting this year. But the winner of the NFC South, like the winner of the NFC East, is likely to be a one-and-done playoff team.
The Bucs did well to get back into the division race after starting 0-4. Then they picked off Caleb Williams four times, scored three points off those interceptions and lost. It was a bit of a microcosm of the entire NFC South, which is filled with teams that just aren’t that good and can even lose games when seemingly everything goes right.
Like every team in the NFC South, the Falcons are still very much in the picture. The problem is that they aren’t very good and their next three games are against the Chiefs, Vikings and Lions. This team needs to figure out if Michael Penix is the answer and, if not, start making plans to replace him in the 2027 NFL Draft.
THE CRAIG CARTON SHOW–UNFILTERED, UNAPOLOGETIC AND UNMISSABLE. !
I’m still a Jayden Daniels truther. I also watched Washington get into field-goal range in overtime against the Giants and let the clock run out without trying a kick. Dan Quinn seems like a good dude who his players really like, but he’s just not a good enough head coach. Daniels needs one of those young offensive gurus who can unlock his full potential.
Arizona Cardinals (3-6), Indianapolis Colts (2-7), New York Jets (2-7), Philadelphia Eagles (2-7), Miami Dolphins (1-7), Tennessee Titans (1-7), Los Angeles Chargers (0-8)
If you root for one of these teams, I hope you like mock drafts (lucky for you, I write several mock drafts every year!). I talked myself into the Jets in September (whoops), and Arizona can still spring an upset every now and then.
The Titans’ only win came against the Colts. Philadelphia has lost seven straight, Miami fans have been looking toward April since September, and the Chargers have Justin Herbert and still haven’t won a game.
A few of these teams could spend the offseason looking for a head coach, a quarterback or both. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of these fan bases are pulling up mock drafts again next November.