PUCHONG: Kelantan and Terengganu are expected to experience continuous heavy rain in November, followed by Pahang and Johor in December, and Sarawak in January, the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) said.
Its National Weather and Earthquake Operations Centre senior director Maqrun Fadzli Mohd Fahmi said three to five episodes of continuous heavy rain were expected between November and January during the early phase of the northeast monsoon.
He was presenting the department’s outlook at a media engagement session on the government’s monsoon preparations at the Special Malaysia Search and Rescue Team (Smart) headquarters here.
Also present were National Disaster Management Agency (Nadma) director-general Datuk Meor Ismail Meor Akim, Malaysian Civil Defence Force deputy chief commissioner (operations) Ghazali Abdul Rahman and Smart commander Abdul Manaf Che Isa.
The monsoon began on Oct 27 and is expected to last until mid-March.
Maqrun said warnings of continuous rain, strong winds and rough seas would be issued up to three days in advance.
The risk of major floods would increase if prolonged heavy rain coincided with high tides.
Despite the expected heavy-rain episodes, total monsoon rainfall is forecast to be below the climatological average, particularly in the northern peninsula, Perak, Sabah and parts of Pahang and Kelantan.
Maqrun also said El Niño had reached a strong level by September and was expected to exceed 2.0°C, reaching the “super” level, by the end of the year.
The phenomenon is expected to persist until mid-2027.
During the 2015/16 super El Niño, rainfall during the monsoon fell by 30 per cent in the peninsula and 45 per cent in Sabah, while Sarawak did not experience a significant decline.
Several states are also forecast to receive below-average rainfall in specific months.
These include southern Johor and eastern Sabah in October, and Sabah from November to March.
Perlis and Kedah are expected to receive less rainfall from January to March, while Penang and Perak are forecast to see a similar trend from February to March.
In March, Kelantan, Pahang, Labuan, Sabah and Sarawak are expected to receive slightly below-average rainfall.
Southern Sarawak, however, is expected to receive slightly above-average rainfall in January.
From January to March, rainfall is expected to decline further, particularly in the northern states and Sabah, bringing hotter and drier conditions with the potential for more extreme heatwaves.