KUALA LUMPUR: Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd’s net profit is expected to decline by between 11 and 18 per cent quarter-on-quarter to RM610 million to RM660 million in the third quarter of 2026 (Q3 2026), mainly due to lower aluminium prices.
RHB Research said aluminium prices fell nine per cent quarter-on-quarter to US$3,228 per tonne, while the Main Japanese Ports (MJP) premium declined four per cent to US$303 per tonne.
It said alumina prices increased nine per cent quarter-on-quarter following recent production cuts, pushing the spot alumina-to-aluminium cost ratio to 11 per cent from nine per cent in the preceding quarter.
“Year-on-year, we expect earnings to increase by three to 11 per cent, supported by higher aluminium prices and lower alumina costs, though partly offset by higher carbon anode costs,” it added.
Globally, aluminium production declined two per cent year-on-year in Q3 2026, while consumption increased three per cent.
Press Metal is scheduled to announce its Q3 2026 financial results on Nov 26.
RHB Research said London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices have averaged US$3,078 per tonne quarter-to-date, while alumina and carbon anode costs have risen seven per cent and six per cent, respectively.
“We have raised our alumina costs assumption slightly, as we expect costs to remain elevated until the end of 2026,” it added.
Meanwhile, the MJP premium has eased to US$232 per tonne as war-related risk premiums gradually subside, bringing the year-to-date average to US$268 per tonne.
“Assuming a similar momentum is maintained in Q4, the 2026 average could end around US$235 to US$245, i.e., lower than our estimates. We adjust our MJP premiums accordingly to be conservative.
“However, a renewed conflict in the Middle East and persistent shipping disruptions through the Hormuz Strait could further tighten global aluminium availability, providing upside risks to our regional premiums and LME prices,” it added.
It added that LME aluminium inventories have fallen 50 per cent year-on-year to an all-time low, raising concerns over near-term supply availability.
RHB Research has lowered its earnings forecasts for Press Metal by 4.4 per cent for FY26 and 2.7 per cent for FY27, while keeping its FY28 net profit forecast largely unchanged after increasing its alumina costs and lowering the MJP premium.
The firm also reduced its target price to RM9.05 from RM9.30, while maintaining its “Buy” call.
“We remain upbeat on Press Metal’s outlook, with any sell-off offering an attractive opportunity to accumulate,” it said.