KUALA LUMPUR: The outcome of the Melaka election is likely to be determined by fence-sitters rather than avid supporters of any political party, says Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) leader Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli.
He said supporters of each major coalition were estimated to make up only a relatively small proportion of the electorate.
Based on current estimates, Rafizi said, Barisan Nasional supporters account for about 20 to 21 per cent, Pakatan Harapan 18 to 19 per cent, and Perikatan Nasional 17 to 18 per cent.
Bersama, meanwhile, is estimated to have about 10 per cent support.
“Secara keseluruhannya, jumlah gabungan penyokong tegar kesemua parti berkenaan hanya sekitar 70 peratus.
“Overall, avid supporters of these parties account for only about 70 per cent of the electorate. Based on this calculation, the remaining 25 to 30 per cent are fence-sitters.
“This is particularly true among Malay voters, making them the decisive group that could determine which coalition wins,” he said in the latest episode of the Yang Berhenti Menteri (YBM) podcast.
Rafizi, a former PKR deputy president, said the political leanings of Malay fence-sitters had consistently shifted in response to prevailing sentiments.
He said issues such as the cost of living, the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the 1MDB scandal and Umno’s leadership problems had prompted more than 20 per cent of Malay voters to switch their support to PH in the 14th General Election.
However, dissatisfaction with the PH administration later saw the so-called silent majority split and shift towards PN in 2022, driven by a desire to try a new alternative rather than a sudden surge in avid Pas supporters, he said.
As Melaka heads towards its state election, Rafizi said Malay fence-sitters appeared to be leaning towards the sentiment of “Malay-Muslim unity” amid prolonged political infighting.
“Conversely, issues of governance, ‘sakau’ and integrity raised by PH are seen as losing their impact and failing to resonate emotionally with voters
“Fence-sitters are beginning to perceive all political parties as being tainted by similar issues following recent controversies and integrity-related concerns,” he said.
On non-Malay voters, Rafizi said the current political landscape had also opened the door to a reassessment of their political preferences.
He said Umno’s treatment of MCA within BN could hurt the feelings of Chinese and Indian voters and remind them of the reasons they had previously rejected the coalition.
At the same time, he said, PKR and Amanah appeared willing to consider cooperation with Malay-based parties such as Bersatu.
“This includes the decision to give up the Bemban state seat, as announced by PH election director Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari.
“The decision has raised questions about the consistency of the coalition’s principles.
“This could also open up the possibility of political realignments between the major coalitions in the future,” he said.
Meanwhile, Rafizi said Bersama appeared to be receiving positive feedback from fence-sitters because of its image as a party that was hardworking, consistent and focused on serving the people rather than pursuing power.
However, he said, its ability to translate that perception into actual votes would only become clear after its candidates were announced and a week of campaigning had taken place.
He added that the success of parties contesting in Melaka would largely depend on their ability to balance national-level policy narratives and positions with concrete local proposals in their respective manifestos.